Ethanol Market Update - 5/27/25

Overview

Executive Summary

(PDF Attached Below)

Production remained strong, holding near recent highs as plant activity continues to stabilize in the upper-70s utilization range. Despite mixed individual performance, total throughput was flat day-over-day, with no net production gain.

Total MMBTU Produced: 411,780
Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains Superior (+691 MMBTU)
Largest Decrease in Production: Elite Octane – Atlantic (0 MMBTU)
Overall Plant Utilization: 73%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 40
Plants Below Utilization Average: 25
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 38%

While production rose modestly, the absence of any day-over-day production losses reflects sustained operational momentum. With average utilization at its highest since mid-April, the market continues signaling a steady return of plant capacity amid firm crush margins.

Green Plains Superior led the gains, reflecting strong performance recovery. Although Elite Octane – Atlantic technically posted the "largest loss," its unchanged output underscores the floor production stability observed across facilities today.

If this consistency holds, it may temper bullish ethanol pricing expectations heading into June—particularly if gasoline demand fails to keep pace with rising ethanol supply.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):

• Green Plains Superior (+691 MMBTU)

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):

• Elite Octane – Atlantic (0 MMBTU)
  

Market Implications & Trade Insights

Short-Term Price Impact:
Neutral to mildly bearish. Stable high throughput combined with cautious demand could pressure prices modestly if inventories trend upward.

Logistics Watch:
Watch for storage congestion in Central Iowa and Nebraska, particularly if export shipments do not keep pace with sustained high output.

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/23/2025

• Estimated Production: 1,032,000 barrels/day

  (vs. prior week’s actual of 1,036,000 b/d)

  This reflects corrected scaling and calibration based on monitored sample data and recent historical adjustments.

Technicals

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