Ethanol Market Update - 5/28/25

Overview

Executive Summary
Ethanol production declined notably today, falling by over 16,000 MMBTU compared to Tuesday. Utilization slipped below the 70% threshold again, with POET Ashton recording the largest drop in output. A slight weakening in overall throughput suggests some biorefineries are scaling back after a recent run-up in production.

Total MMBTU Produced: 396,296
Daily Production Change: –16,461 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Homeland Energy Solutions (+2,500 MMBTU)
Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Ashton (–4,281 MMBTU)
Overall Plant Utilization: 69%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 42
Plants Below Utilization Average: 25
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 38%

Market Insight
Today’s pullback in production breaks the three-day streak of strength, signaling a potential pause or rebalancing as plants evaluate forward margins and logistics constraints. Despite the drop, utilization remains within range of recent norms, and market participants will closely watch whether this is a blip or the start of a broader slowdown.

Key narrative shift: While production surged earlier this week, today’s downtick reflects a more cautious posture from biorefineries amid mixed demand signals and logistical considerations.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day)

• Homeland Energy Solutions: +2,500 MMBTU

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day)

• POET Biorefining – Ashton: –4,281 MMBTU

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Slightly bullish; a production slowdown could stabilize prices, particularly if inventories begin to tighten.

• Logistics Watch: No immediate pressure, but rail bottlenecks remain a risk should production volatility increase in coming weeks.

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/23/2025
Estimated Production: 1,036,000 barrels/day

Technicals

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