Ethanol Market Update - 5/29/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production ticked higher today, with total MMBTU climbing moderately. Plant-level throughput continues to hover around the 70% utilization mark, suggesting a stable operational environment.

• Total MMBTU Produced: 401,829

• Daily Production Change: +3,409 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: Marquis Energy – Wisconsin

• Largest Decrease in Production: Green Plains Superior

• Overall Plant Utilization: 70%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 39

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 26

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 40%

Market Insight

Today’s modest production climb reflects cautious optimism at the plant level, with utilization steady at 70%. Marquis Energy - Wisconsin posted the largest daily gain, while Green Plains Superior saw the largest decrease, suggesting varied plant-level dynamics.

This pattern of modest movement indicates producers are closely monitoring demand signals, especially ahead of the summer driving season. Expect potential short-term volatility in spot pricing as the market balances evolving production trends.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
Marquis Energy – Wisconsin (+3610)

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
Green Plains Superior (-1562)

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral to slightly bearish. Production remains elevated and consistent, which may weigh on prices unless demand picks up more sharply.

• Logistics Watch: Stability in throughput is easing pressure on storage and transport, though local issues could arise depending on rail availability in key corn belt regions.

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/23/2025

• Estimated Production: 1,032,000 barrels/day
  (vs. last week’s actual of 1,036,000 b/d)

Technicals

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