Ethanol Market Update - 5/30/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production finished the week on stable footing, with a modest uptick in daily output and utilization holding in the low-70s. Plant-level activity was generally balanced, though regional divergences continued to emerge.

• Total MMBTU Produced: 405,277

• Daily Production Change: +1,776 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: Corn, LP – Goldfield (+2,969 MMBTU)

• Largest Decrease in Production: Homeland Energy Solutions (–2,500 MMBTU)

• Overall Plant Utilization: 72%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 38

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 27

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 38%

Market Insight

Production held its ground going into the weekend, and this week’s consistency in throughput is helping shape a short-term supply ceiling. Homeland Energy posted another sharp pullback while Goldfield continued to outperform, helping balance the mix.

The broader market outlook remains stable, with inventories likely to climb modestly barring a demand spike. Futures pricing should remain rangebound unless next week reveals further divergences in operational pace.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):

• Corn, LP – Goldfield (+2,969 MMBTU)

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):

• Homeland Energy Solutions (–2,500 MMBTU)

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral to mildly bearish. Supply strength persists, but upside appears capped short-term.

• Logistics Watch: No major constraints observed, though regional rail volumes should be watched if production remains elevated next week.

Technicals

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