Ethanol Market UpdateMay 15, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Production declined today as plant-level curtailments outpaced gains, resulting in a softer utilization rate and broader output reductions.

• Daily Production Change: –7,277 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: Valero Renewables – Charles City (+3,900 MMBTU)

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: POET Bioprocessing – Fairbank (–2,863 MMBTU)

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 69%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 42

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 23

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 35%

Market Insight

Today’s production retreat reflects selective margin-driven slowdowns, particularly at Fairbank. However, Charles City’s sharp production increase suggests that not all operators are facing the same cost pressures. Utilization remains near 70%, a level that continues to balance supply stability with cautious margin management.

Key narrative shift: While today’s pullback interrupts recent production momentum, it is too early to call a definitive trend reversal without additional curtailments through the week.

Plant-Level Insights

• Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ Valero Renewables – Charles City (+3,900 MMBTU)

   

• Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ POET Bioprocessing – Fairbank (–2,863 MMBTU) 

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Mildly supportive; today’s production decline may lend slight price support if further curtailments follow.

   

• Logistics Watch: Monitor Eastern Corn Belt flow patterns for potential disruptions as utilization varies across key facilities. 

EIA Weekly Actual – Week Ending 5/9/2025

Reported Production: 993,000 barrels/day

Technicals

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Market Update

Natural Gas Daily Update

Disclaimer: The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC