Ethanol Market Update May 14, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Production held steady today, reflecting a balanced supply environment as modest curtailments were offset by selective plant-level increases.

• Total MMBTU Produced: 406,603

• Daily Production Change: +1,674 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: Ringneck Energy (+2,657 MMBTU)

• Largest Decrease in Production: Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC (–2,919 MMBTU)

• Overall Plant Utilization: 71%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 43

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 22

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 34%

Market Insight

Stable production patterns suggest that most facilities are content maintaining current throughput levels amid mixed margin signals. Ringneck Energy continues its upward momentum, while Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy trims back operations. Utilization remains healthy above 70%, but the market remains sensitive to any further margin compression or feedstock volatility.

Key narrative shift: While daily production gains were moderate, the sustained high utilization rate signals continued resilience in U.S. ethanol supply.

Plant-Level Insights

• Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ Ringneck Energy (+2,657 MMBTU)

• Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC (–2,919 MMBTU)

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral; supply stability is well-matched to current demand conditions, keeping prices range-bound in the near term.

• Logistics Watch: Continued monitoring is advised for Eastern Corn Belt logistics, where some plant-level supply fluctuations may emerge in late May.

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/9/2025

Estimated Production: 1,017,000 barrels/day (vs. last week’s actual of 1,020,000 b/d)

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