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- Ethanol Market Update May 19, 2025
Ethanol Market Update May 19, 2025
Liquidity Energy, LLC
Nicholas Coolidge
May 19, 2025
Executive Summary
Production surged today, with a significant rise in plant-level throughput pushing overall utilization above the key 70% threshold.
Total MMBTU Produced: 418,882
Daily Production Change: +19,249 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Shell Rock (+7,903 MMBTU)
Largest Decrease in Production: Green Plains Fairmont (–2,493 MMBTU)
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 43
Plants Below Utilization Average: 22
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 34%
Market Insight
Today’s sharp production increase suggests favorable market economics and improved crush margins are driving facilities back toward higher capacity utilization. POET Shell Rock led the gains with a substantial ramp-up, offsetting losses primarily at Green Plains Fairmont.
With utilization climbing solidly above 70%, the market should monitor for potential near-term supply pressure. If this momentum sustains through the week, it could weigh on spot ethanol prices absent a matching rise in demand.
Key narrative shift: This is the highest daily production recorded since late March, signaling a potential breakout in ethanol production trends heading into summer driving season.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
Total Ethanol Produced | 418,882 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | 403,174 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
POET Biorefining – Shell Rock (+7,903 MMBTU)
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
Green Plains Fairmont (–2,493 MMBTU)
Market Implications & Trade Insights
Short-Term Price Impact: Mildly bearish; the market may begin to price in increased availability, especially if inventories build.
Logistics Watch: Continued production acceleration could lead to logistical bottlenecks in the Western Corn Belt, particularly if rail and storage capacities become constrained.
EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/16/2025
Estimated Production: 1,013,000 barrels/day
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Disclaimer: The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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