Ethanol Market Update May 20, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary
Production edged higher today, although the rebound remains uneven across the sector. With volatility persisting at individual plants, aggregate utilization continues to hover around the 71% mark.

• Daily Production Change: +3,422 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: Red Trail Energy LLC (+1,000 MMBTU)

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: Green Plains Madison LLC (–927 MMBTU)

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 71%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 41

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 24

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 37%

   

Market Insight
Today's modest gain in production provides a temporary pause in what has been a multi-day stretch of softness. However, underlying operational caution remains, particularly as several mid-sized producers continue to operate well below prior-month averages. A pattern of alternating daily swings may reflect efforts to manage inventories more tightly ahead of the summer driving season.

Key narrative shift: The sector appears to be oscillating between stabilization and strategic pullback, rather than committing to a broader restart cycle.

Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
◦ Red Trail Energy LLC (+1,000 MMBTU)

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
◦ Green Plains Madison LLC (–927 MMBTU)

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Slightly constructive. Today’s rebound is unlikely to offset cumulative production softness unless sustained into late week.

   

• Logistics Watch: Ongoing underperformance at several Midwest plants could stress regional delivery lanes, especially in Iowa and eastern Nebraska.

   

EIA Weekly Estimate
Estimated EIA Weekly Production (week ending 5/16):
📉 987 thousand barrels/day (modeled projection)

The official EIA figure will be released Wednesday morning. Our estimate suggests a further decline from the prior week's 993 kb/d, reflecting continued operational throttling across key facilities.

Technicals

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