Ethanol Market Update May 13, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Production rose sharply today as plant-level re-ramping outpaced curtailments, resulting in a notable shift in overall utilization:

• Total MMBTU Produced: 408,209

   

• Daily Production Change: +10,515 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Shell Rock (+5,431 MMBTU)

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: Valero Renewables – Charles City (–6,100 MMBTU)

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 71%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 44

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 21

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 32%

   

Market Insight

Today’s significant production increase suggests improving margin environments or forward sales commitments encouraging higher throughput. The sharp gain at Shell Rock leads this recovery, offsetting continued output reductions from Charles City. With utilization climbing above 70%, the market may begin to price in higher near-term ethanol availability, especially if these gains sustain through the week.

Key narrative shift: This is the highest daily production observed since early April, signaling potential acceleration in ethanol supply dynamics.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

• Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ POET Biorefining – Shell Rock (+5,431 MMBTU)

   

• Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ Valero Renewables – Charles City (–6,100 MMBTU)

   

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Mildly bearish; higher utilization may weigh on near-term ethanol pricing if demand doesn’t match increased output.

   

• Logistics Watch: Watch for logistical strain in the Western Corn Belt as several plants approach or exceed prior capacity peaks.

   

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/9/2025

Estimated Production: 1,017,000 barrels/day (vs. last week’s actual of 1,020,000 b/d)

Technicals

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