Ethanol Market Update May 16, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Production fell further today as plant-level slowdowns continued, pushing utilization to its lowest level in recent weeks.

• Daily Production Change: –17,596 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC (+1,911 MMBTU)

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Shell Rock (–5,922 MMBTU)

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 67%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 41

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 24

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 37% 

Market Insight

Today’s steep production decline indicates sustained margin pressure and cautious operational strategies across the sector. With Shell Rock sharply cutting output and utilization now trending below 70%, ethanol availability may tighten if this trend persists into the weekend.

Key narrative shift: This is the lowest utilization rate observed since early March, potentially signaling the start of a seasonal slowdown or broader economic headwinds affecting operational decisions.

Plant-Level Insights

• Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC (+1,911 MMBTU)

   

• Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
  ◦ POET Biorefining – Shell Rock (–5,922 MMBTU)

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Supportive; continued production declines may stabilize or lift ethanol prices if demand remains steady.

   

• Logistics Watch: Rising number of plants underutilizing capacity could lead to imbalanced supply distribution in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt.

EIA Weekly Estimate

No estimate provided today. The next update will be issued on Monday.

Technicals

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