Ethanol Market Update May 21, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Production declined sharply today, reversing earlier gains and sending average plant utilization back below 70%. Several key facilities showed meaningful cutbacks, with the sector tightening further heading into Memorial Day weekend.

• Daily Production Change: –28,864 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains Superior

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: Kansas Ethanol - Lyons

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 67%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 41

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 24

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 37%

   

Market Insight

Today’s production pullback appears broad-based, with multiple facilities scaling down output. Kansas Ethanol posted the day’s largest cut, and overall utilization continues to lag recent seasonal norms. This likely reflects margin pressure amid weaker crush economics.

Key narrative shift: Several weeks of soft throughput, combined with rising under-utilization, suggest that ethanol supply may underperform historical trends as we approach summer driving season.

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):

• Green Plains Superior

   

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):

• Kansas Ethanol - Lyons

   

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Supportive bias. Should blending demand firm, limited supply growth could trigger price rebounds across RINs and spot ethanol.

   

• Logistics Watch: East Kansas and Nebraska continue to show variability in daily output, which could lead to distribution issues in regional pipelines.

   

EIA Weekly Estimate

• Reported for week ending 5/9: 993 thousand barrels/day

   

• Estimated for week ending 5/16: 980 thousand barrels/day (Coolidge estimate)

   

This reflects ongoing plant slowdowns and reduced operating rates across the monitored network. Key reductions were observed at Shell Rock, Lyons, and several POET-affiliated facilities.

Technicals

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