Ethanol Market Update May 22, 2025

Overview

The Coolidge Report is brought to you by Liquidity Energy LLC.

Executive Summary

Production rebounded strongly today, posting the largest daily gain of the week and pushing utilization back to 69%. The recovery was led by Green Plains Madison, which ramped output by 5,000 MMBTU, offsetting losses concentrated in the Heartland.

• Daily Production Change: +16,665 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains Madison LLC (+5,000 MMBTU)

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: Horizon Ethanol - Jewell (–1,974 MMBTU)

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 69%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 43

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 22

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 34%

   

Market Insight

Today’s production recovery may signal the beginning of a stabilization trend following several days of pressure on operating margins. With more facilities edging back above average utilization, the sector is cautiously responding to firming downstream demand signals.

Key narrative shift: This is the second consecutive session of meaningful throughput strength, although daily volatility remains high across key producing states.

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):

• Green Plains Madison LLC (+5,000 MMBTU)

   

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):

• Horizon Ethanol – Jewell (–1,974 MMBTU)

   

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Slightly bearish; the production increase could temporarily ease supply concerns, especially if weekend runs hold steady.

   

• Logistics Watch: Persistent variability in East Kansas and northern Iowa continues to pose scheduling challenges, though pipeline movement remains stable for now.

   

EIA Weekly Estimate

No new estimate provided today. The next updated estimate will be issued early next week.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Market Update

Natural Gas Daily Update

Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC